Yesterday I commented on a post I read and mentioned I do a complete market analysis which includes average days on the market, average sales price and average selling price per square foot every two weeks for my listings. In addition, I mentioned I add an "Absorption Rate" to every report. The combination of the two has prompted many sellers to voluntarily reduce their asking price.
Several AR members emailed me and wanted a copy of the absorption rate I use. The one I use is below and I hope it is helpful.
Example of Absorption Rate application:
Your Right Price Analysis on a seller's home supports a Price Point of $539,000.
The sellers inform you that they want to list their property with you for $589,999.
To explain the effect of current market activity and validate the Price Point derived from your RPA, you create an Absorption Rate (AR) Analysis as follows:
First, determine the number of like-kind homes that have sold in the last 12-months at their expected price of $589,999.
8 Properties sold and closed in the last 12 months
Second, divide this number by 12 to determine the number of properties absorbed by the market on a monthly basis.
8 divided by 12 = .67 absorption rate
Third, you search the numbers of like-kind homes that are currently on the market (for sale) at their expected price of $589,999.
17 Properties are currently on the market
Fourth, divide this number by the absorption rate to determine how many months it will take to absorb what is currently for sale at their expected price of $589,999.
17 divided by .67(AR) = 25.37 month supply of homes on the market
This is powerful. When sellers see there is a 25+ month supply of homes they become more realistic about pricing their home correctly. Add this to a bi-weekly CMA report.
Native Idahoan and Boise Idaho Real Estate specialist serving Boise, Meridian Eagle, Nampa, Caldwell and the surrounding Treasure valley area of southwest Idaho. Specializing in residential, investment, land and commercial real estate. Search thousands of MLS listings at Boise Homes for sale and learn all about Idaho by visiting Search Idaho Homes

I agee with you! The absorption rate is overlooked in CMAs and is a must. Very good useful post.
Wayne - Columbus Ga Real Estate
This is a great thing to add to CMAs. Very informative for the sellers.
We work frequently with condos, and have an excess of them here. We use the absorption rate all the time. It helps show sellers and developers how much inventory is on the market, and then they can judge how aggressive they want to be with their incentives.
George,
It is amazing how the absorption rate can make a seller see the whole picture! You can tell them everything included in the CMA and get to the absorption rate and suddenly, the light goes on!
This is a very important tool. But I don't use the 12 month number as heavily as you do- not with the fluctuations in my market are this year. I do point out the year-view absorption rate, but I balance it by reviewing with them the month by month sales trends, and then discuss the more recent absorption activity- say 6 month or 3 month.
I do track the general market area sales stats and use these to point out the overall trends as well.
But honestly, all these numbers really frazzle the nerves of so many clients LOL
What a great idea. You are smarter than the average bear.
I did an analysis for a town home today where the comps were from $189,000 to $229,000. Not that it matters, nothing is selling in the community.
Great post. This will definitely open lots of sellers eyes when trying to price their home. I will use this tool to my advantage. Once again thanks alot.
Want to make it more powerful? Track it on an ongoing basis so you can provide them a chart showing the trend for the absorption rate. I've used such a line graph in my last two presentations and it's helped with pricing in both cases.
I'm coming up on the year mark for tracking absorption rate on a rolling 30-day basis here in the Phoenix area. The full results are on my Dalton's Arizona Homes Blog and I've posted them on Active Rain from time to time as well.
Very informative. A much needed "talking point."
Thanks, George
Paula - Yes it is a very important tool my friend
Sarah - Use it as you wish. I too have used the 3 or 6 month version
Eric - Thank you and good luck to you
Lenn - Thanks for the compliment my friend - I needed that...LOL
Mike or Emmett? - Thanks and good luck
Freddie - You are very welcome and good luck
Christina - You are very welcome and good luck
Julie - You are very welcome
Sherry - You are very welcome....I hope it helps you
Jim - Thank you my friend....good to hear from you
Jonathan - I do convert mine to a chart and it is powerful. I just wanted members to know the basic formula
Liz - Good luck with it
Kaushik - Yes it is very powerful
Gary - You are very welcome
Great job. Thanks for resurrecting it from the cobwebs of my mind. So I don't forget again I put it into an Excel file so all I have to do is punch in the numbers and it can do the figures for me. I have an appointment Tuesday with a client. I will use it then.
Great post Geaorge. This a great tool to have. I will use it.
Thanks
Leigh - Thanks, it does make a huge difference...I hope you are well
Lillianne - I hope it helps you...take care
Julio - I hope it works well for you
Yes, this process does work! I've used it before.
I just haven't figured out how to put it into a chart but that sounds like a great idea.
Robert - I only provide in on my suggested price point but any variation can be done
Peggy - Charts can be done with Excel. Go to the help menu on Excel and type in Charts. Hopefully this will help you...charts are powerful
Carol - Thank you...so very true
Great post, George. I track absorption each month for all the communities I service and provide this to past, present and prospective clients. I am curious about why you use 12 months vs. 6. CRS promotes 6 as have others I have hear from on this. Great idea to focus on the like-kind homes in a CMA - I have just looked at the overall inventory to gain a sense of the overall market as opposed to a specific niche.
Thanks for sharing this.
Jeff
Joan - Thank you and very true
Kay - Good luck to you my friend...Stand your ground!
Jeff - One can use 3 months, 6 months or 12 months out...your choice
Excellent post!
Jack
George, Great post :) keep the good blog :) it will help some agents to start using this one :)
Thank you George, I would not have thought to use this number, but it makes complete sense!
Great post, as usual!
I did this chart for a home that I have been pestering the owner for a price reduction.
3.85 years.
No graph is necessary, no time line is necessary.
Ray - Thanks and have a great day
Ana - You are very welcome....good luck
Diane - You are welcome
Andrew - Thanks for stopping by and your comments
Tim - Rember KISS...LOL I have used this since 1997 without altering it and it has worked wonders my friend.
Queen Elizabeth - Good for you. I hope it helps
Stu - Good for you!
Margaret - Good for you...keep up the good work
Susan - Thank you and good luck using it.
I do this but a bit differently! Price redux are SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO easy when you do CMA's after the fact AND combine it with absorption rate.
My people come to me for price reductions, I don't go to them!
Interesting stat.
Bob Mitchell
ValueList
Robin - Thank you and you are very welcome
John - Thanks, I needed that compliment today...LOL!
George,
I added the absorption rates to my marketing letters but because there was little inventory turnover I only update it every 3-6 months so I have more information available. Good idea so the consumer can see the percentage of change.
Aziz - De Nada, have a great weekend
Marcus - Good luck to you
George,
WE routinely use this in our market place, especially now.